Don’t be impressed by the headlines reporting year-over-year housing numbers for the next several months (data covering March, April, May, and June). The data will most likely show eye-popping one-year increases.
While the year-over-year jumps will certainly be striking, consumers should take these numbers with a grain of salt, as the situation highlights a short-term quirk in the reporting of this data. Essentially, the increases will reflect a combination of two things: sharply lower housing numbers during last year’s virus-related market collapse and the subsequent strong rebound. This will result in what will appear to be unbelievable growth.
Let’s use single-family home sales as an example:As the graph reveals, last spring’s buying market was anything but typical. Instead of sales increasing, they fell sharply as a result of stay-at-home orders that virtually shut the real estate industry down.
This spring’s real estate market will bounce back with more normal seasonal sales increases. The percentage increase in sales will be astronomical – not because sales have skyrocketed, but instead because they will be compared to last year’s low numbers.
Bottom Line
There are likely to be some sensational headlines about real estate over the coming months. However, don’t be fooled. The actual story is that the real estate market is finally back to normal.
For the second year in a row, the coronavirus pandemic has put a stop to Portland’s annual summer experiment in clothes-free bicycling.
The World Naked Bike Ride in Portland will not take place this year, at least not in its traditional form.
Instead of a big group ride with a bunch of naked and partially naked painted people protesting oil dependence and dangerous cycling conditions and reveling in body positivity, organizers are encouraging protesters to go on their own naked bike rides every full moon of the summer.
“This year we will not be coordinating a ride,” reads the group’s website. “Instead, cyclists are encouraged to protest on every full moon from June through August.”
There will be some events scheduled through Pedalpalooza, a community celebration of biking, for those who want to ride naked with friends or strangers. A “Buck Naked Full Moon Ride” is already scheduled for July 23.
Portland’s World Naked Bike Ride organizers are asking people from outside the Portland metro area not to come to town for rides and, for those who do ride, they say mask up whether or not you’ve been vaccinated.
The financial benefits of buying a home as compared to renting one are always up for debate. However, one element of the equation is often ignored – the ability to build wealth as a homeowner.
Most experts are calling for home prices to continue appreciating over the next several years. The most recent Home Price Expectation Survey, a survey of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists, expects home appreciation to increase as follows:
2021: 6%
2022: 4.5%
2023: 4%
2024: 3.6%
2025: 3.5%
Using their annual projections, the graph below shows the equity build-up a purchaser could earn, using a $350,000 home as an example:A homeowner could increase their net worth by over $80,000 in five years. That’s an average of $16,000 annually. That number should be in any equation determining the financial benefits of owning a home compared to renting.
Bottom Line
Homeowners are going to make a substantial amount of money in home equity over the next five years. If you’re ready to buy a home, let’s connect so you can enjoy this great benefit as well.
One of the biggest hurdles homebuyers face is saving for a down payment. As you’re budgeting and planning for your home purchase, you’ll want to understand how much you’ll need to put down and how long it will take you to get there. The process may actually move faster than you think.
Using data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and Apartment List, we can estimate how long it might take someone earning the median income and paying the median rent to save up for a down payment on a median-priced home. Since saving for a down payment can be a great time to practice budgeting for housing costs, this estimate also uses the concept that a household should not pay more than 28% of their total income on monthly housing expenses.
According to the data, the national average for the time it would take to save for a 10% down payment is right around two and a half years (2.53). Residents in Iowa can save for a down payment the fastest, doing so in just over one year (1.31). The map below illustrates this time (in years) for each state:
What if you only need to save 3%?
What if you’re able to take advantage of one of the 3% down payment programs available? It’s a common misconception that you need a 20% down payment to buy a home, but there are actually more affordable options and down payment assistance programs available, especially for first-time buyers. The reality is, saving for a 3% down payment may not take several years. In fact, it could take less than a year in most states, as shown in the map below:
Bottom Line
Wherever you are in the process of saving for a down payment, you may be closer to your dream home than you think. Let’s connect to explore the down payment options available in our area and how they support your plans.
WASHINGTON (April 8, 2021) – The use of new data to determine prospective buyers’ creditworthiness will increase opportunities for homeownership among Black and Latino Americans, according to new research outlined today at a virtual event hosted by the National Association of Realtors®. NAR is recognizing Fair Housing Month along with the rest of the nation this April, honoring the sacrifices made during the ongoing fight to expand equal access to homeownership and private property in America.
The paper, Tipping the SCALE: How Alternative Data in Credit Scoring Promote or Impede Fair Lending Goals, was authored by industry thought leaders Ann B. Schnare and Vanessa Gail Perry. It examines how reforms to current credit bureau data and scoring models, which exclude many common household expenditures like rent and utility payments, would provide a more comprehensive view of a household’s credit performance and dramatically increase opportunities for property ownership.
“Minorities are far more likely to be ‘unscoreable’ or have relatively weak credit scores using traditional credit bureau data,” Dr. Schnare said Thursday. “Incorporating additional data into the credit evaluation process can open doors for many deserving borrowers and boost minority homeownership rates.”
Under the new proposal, each form of alternative data would be evaluated using a newly devised five-factor “SCALE” framework that incorporates important considerations in the data’s predictive power. These include:
Societal Values: Does it respect social and ethical norms like right to privacy
Contextual Integrity: Regardless of predictive value, is it relevant to mortgages
Accuracy: Does the data accurately reflect the household’s financial situation
Legality: Would the use of the data have a disparate impact on protected classes
Expanded Opportunity: Would the use of the data increase the number of qualified borrowers
Dr. Schnare, currently the president of her own consulting firm specializing in housing and mortgage finance, previously served as a senior vice president at Freddie Mac. Dr. Perry, a professor at the George Washington University School of Business, was a senior advisor to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development during the Obama administration.
“The rise of big data greatly expands the options for credit scoring,” Dr. Perry noted. “However, predictability is not enough to justify the use of certain kinds of data. Their use must also be consistent with broader social and ethical values.”
Homeownership rates for Black and Latino Americans have lagged those of White Americans for decades, highlighting the need to review existing tools and identify new credit valuation processes.
“A borrower’s credit report and credit score are the gateway to a mortgage,” said NAR President Charlie Oppler. “But for too long, inaccurate credit reporting methods have raised the cost to borrow while limiting access to mortgage credit for prospective borrowers, particularly those from minority populations and rural communities. NAR is eager to apply this new research to help shape our policy positions and advocacy efforts in the future.”
The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.4 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
Over the past year, we’ve had plenty of opportunities to reflect on what we consider most important in our lives. The place we call home is one of the biggest things many of us are reevaluating. George Ratiu, Senior Economist at realtor.com, shares:
“The very nature of the pandemic, through the health implications, social distancing, and need to isolate, has really brought a central focus on the importance of home for most Americans…In a sense, it has elevated real estate markets as a centerpiece of our lives.”
For some, this has spurred an interest in making a move to a home that better suits our changing needs. In a recent study on today’s homebuyer preferences, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) states:
“When asked more specifically how the pandemic may have impacted their preference for home size…21% or about 1 out of every 5 buyers, do want a larger home now as a direct result of the health crisis, while another segment – 12% – would prefer a smaller one instead.”
While you might expect more time at home to lead to a need for more space, it’s interesting that a significant portion of homeowners actually want less. For those who own larger homes right now and have a desire to move, today’s housing market is full of opportunities. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, explains:
“In a real estate market that is tipped in the favor of sellers, boomers and older homeowners are really the ones holding the cards…Those who are selling homes can use the profits to help them buy new ones.”
As a homeowner today, you likely have equity that can be put toward the purchase of your next home. With the equity growth homes have seen over the past year, you may have more than you think, which can help significantly as you make a move into your next home. According to a report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR):
“Home sellers cited that they sold their homes for a median of $66,000 more than they purchased it. Sellers 22 to 30 years gained the least at $33,400 in equity compared to sellers 66 to 74 years gained $100,000 in equity as they likely had lived in their homes for a longer period of time.”
Despite the benefits of growing home equity, some homeowners are still hesitant to move and could be considering remodeling or making changes to their current space instead. However, if you’ve thought about aging in place rather than downsizing, you may want to reconsider. The U.S. Census Bureaupoints out:
“Of the nation’s 115 million housing units, only 10% are ready to accommodate older populations.”
If your house is no longer the best fit for your evolving needs, it may be time to put your equity to work for you and downsize to the home you really want.
Bottom Line
Today’s housing market favors homeowners who are ready to sell their houses and make a move. If you’re thinking about downsizing this year, let’s connect to discuss your options in our local market.
