Author: Christy Walton

By WPJ Staff | December 2, 2021 8:10 AM ET

According to national property broker Redfin, the number of homes for sale hit an all-time low during the week ending November 28, 2021. During that period, sustained demand pushed the median home price to another record high, and a third of homes sold in one week or less.” The number of homes for sale typically declines another 15% in December,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “That means that by the end of the year, there will likely be 100,000 fewer homes for sale than there were in February when housing supply last hit rock bottom. I think more new listings will hit the market in the new year, but there will also be a long line of buyers who are queuing up right now.”

“Meanwhile, headlines and new restrictions related to the omicron variant of the coronavirus might fuel some uncertainty and volatility in the economy,” Fairweather continued. “In the short term, global interest rates, including mortgage rates, could fall. In this extremely tight housing market, we would quickly see a proportional increase in competition and home prices.”

Key housing market takeaways for 400+ U.S. metro areas:

• The median home-sale price hit a new all-time high of $360,375, up 14% year over year. This was up 31% from the same period in 2019 and up 1.5% from a month earlier, far greater than the 0.2% increase seen during the same period last year.
• Asking prices of newly listed homes were up 12% from the same time a year ago and up 27% from 2019 to a median of $349,750.
• Pending home sales were up 8% year over year, and up 49% compared to the same period in 2019.
• New listings of homes for sale were down 4% from a year earlier, but up 12% from 2019.
• During the seven-day period ending November 28, active listings fell to a new all-time low. For the four-week period, active listings fell 23% from 2020 and 42% from 2019.
• 45% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market, above the 39% rate of a year earlier and the 28% rate in 2019. Since the four-week period ending September 19, the share of homes under contract within two weeks is up 2.3 percentage points. During the same time in 2019, the share fell 3.1 points.
• 33% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within one week of hitting the market, up from 27% during the same period a year earlier and 18% in 2019. Since the four-week period ending September 12, the share of homes under contract within a week is up 2.9 percentage points. During the same time in 2019, the share fell 2.3 points.
• Homes that sold were on the market for a median of 25 days, down from 31 days a year earlier and 46 days in 2019.
• 43% of homes sold above list price, up from 35% a year earlier and 21% in 2019.
• On average, 3.8% of homes for sale each week had a price drop, up 0.7 percentage points from the same time in 2020 and up 0.2 points from this time in 2019.
• The average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their asking prices, was 100.5%. In other words, the average home sold for 0.5% above its asking price.
• Mortgage purchase applications increased 5% week over week (seasonally adjusted) during the week ending November 26. For the week ending November 24, 30-year mortgage rates were flat at 3.1%.
• Touring activity through November 21 fell about 1 percentage point behind 2019 relative to the first week of January according to home tour technology company ShowingTime.
• The Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index fell 7% during the week ending November 28 but was up 9% from a year earlier.

Rates increased one basis point to 3.11% in the week ending Dec. 2

December 2, 2021, 9:50 am By Flávia Furlan Nunes

Mortgage rates increased one basis point to 3.11% in the week ending Dec. 2, ignoring the volatility in the financial markets caused by the Omicron Covid variant, according to the latest Freddie Mac PMMS mortgage report.

A year ago at this time, the average 30-year fixed-rate loan averaged just 2.71%, according to the report published on Thursday. Mortgage rates are in a historical low level, but the expectation is that they will increase in the coming months due to higher interest rates.

Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement that the consistency of rates, in the face of changes in the economy, is primarily due to the evolution of the pandemic, which lingers and continues to pose uncertainty. “This low mortgage rate environment offers favorable conditions for refinancing,” he added.

The survey focuses on conventional, conforming, and fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.

Economists at Freddie Mac said the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.39% last week, down from 2.42% the week prior. However, it’s higher than it was a year ago, at 2.26%. Meanwhile, the five-year ARM increased to 2.49%, up two basis points from last week. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.86%.

---

Mortgage rates tend to move in concert with the 10-year Treasury yield, which reached 1.43% on Dec. 1, down from 1.54% a week before.

The year-over-year increase in rates is impacting mortgage applications. The latest Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) survey published on Wednesday showed a 7.2% decline for the week ending Nov. 26, in comparison to the previous week.  

Compared to a year ago, the overall market composite index dipped 29.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis. “Over the past three weeks, rates are up 15 basis points, and refinance activity has declined over 18%,” Joel Kan, the MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said in a statement.

Last Updated: Dec. 1, 2021 at 12:02 p.m. ETFirst Published: Nov. 30, 2021 at 12:01 p.m. ET
By Jacob Passy
The limits on which mortgages the federal government will back have increased in almost every part of the U.S., thanks to rising home prices.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will soon provide guarantees for mortgages close to $1 million, owing to the past year’s titanic increase in home prices.

On Tuesday, the Federal Housing Finance Agency released its breakdown of the conforming loan limits for 2022. These are the maximum allowable mortgages that can be backed by Fannie Mae FNMA, -3.18% and Freddie Mac FMCC, -2.93% — larger home loans would be considered jumbo loans, which are typically portfolio loans or securitized privately.

Throughout most of the country, the 2022 baseline limit on loans for single-family homes backed by Fannie and Freddie will be $647,200, which represents an increase of nearly $100,000 from 2021. The new limits officially go into effect on Jan. 1.

The FHFA based the increase on data gleaned from its House Price Index, which showed an 18.05% increase on average in home prices nationwide between the third quarters of 2020 and 2021.

In high-cost housing markets, Fannie and Freddie are allowed to support mortgages of greater amounts. By law, the limit for high-cost areas is set at 150% of the baseline limit, meaning that in some markets the mortgage giants could back loans up to $970,800 in value.

Conforming loan limits vary from county to county. According to the FHFA, there were only four counties nationwide where the loan limits did not increase — a reflection of how widespread home-price appreciation has been over the past year. By law, the loan limits set by the FHFA cannot be reduced, even in cases where home prices drop.

New data has suggested that home-price growth has begun to slow. September was the first month since May 2020 in which annual home-price growth decreased, according to the latest edition of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. And data from Realtor.com showed that listing prices have fallen on a yearly basis in 17 of the 50 largest metro areas nationwide, a reflection of the fact that more homeowners are finally putting their homes up for sale.

The game of chess can provide incredible lessons to apply to all aspects of life, including the homebuying process. Chess requires you to plan and think about your strategy from the very beginning of the game.

The homebuying process, like chess, requires strategy and planning. Here are a few things to keep in mind to ensure your plan is as strong as possible when you begin your home search.

Pre-Approval: the Best Opening Play To Make as a Homebuyer

It’s important to have a great opening play when you’re buying a home. And the best move you can make when you begin your home search is getting pre-approved by a lender. You’ve probably already heard this is an important step, but what exactly is pre-approval and what benefits does it provide you?

As Freddie Mac puts it:

“The pre-approval letter from your lender tells you the maximum amount you are qualified to borrow. Getting a pre-approval letter is not a loan guarantee, it simply states how much your lender is willing to lend you. . . .”

And while determining how much you can afford at the start of your search is critical, the pre-approval letter also serves another important purpose. Freddie Mac also notes:

“This pre-approval allows you to look for a home with greater confidence and demonstrates to the seller that you are a serious buyer.”

In the game of chess, a strong opening move signals to your opponent that you’re a serious competitor. As a homebuyer, your pre-approval letter signals to the seller that you’re a serious, interested buyer.

Homebuying: It’s a Team Game, Not a Single-Player Experience

Every step you take to create your strategy as a buyer is important in today’s market. Why? Mortgage rates are still low, but increasing. Prices are going up. There’s a limited supply of homes for sale. These are just a few key variables in today’s market you need to be prepared for.

That means leaning on expert guidance as you plan every move is more important than ever. Have a team of professionals – like your trusted real estate agent and a loan officer – every step of the way to make sure you make the right moves.

Bottom Line

Getting a pre-approval letter isn’t just good strategy, it can be game-changing. It allows you to get a full understanding of what you can afford, and it signals to sellers that you’re serious. Let’s connect today to ensure you’re playing chess and being strategic during the home buying process.

November 29, 2021Media Contact: Quintin Simmons 202-383-1178

Key Highlights

• Contract signings increased 7.5% in October from September, a reversal of last month’s decline. 
• Compared to the prior month, contract signings increased in all regions.
• Compared to one year ago, contract signings were 1.4% lower. 

WASHINGTON (November 29, 2021) – Pending home sales increased in October, rebounding after a decline the month prior, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Contract activity rose month-over-month in each of the four major U.S. regions. On a year-over-year basis, however, transactions were split, as two regions reported drops and two others posted gains.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI),* www.nar.realtor/pending-home-sales, a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, rose 7.5% to 125.2 in October. Year-over-year, signings fell 1.4%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

“Motivated by fast-rising rents and the anticipated increase in mortgage rates, consumers that are on strong financial footing are signing contracts to purchase a home sooner rather than later,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “This solid buying is a testament to demand still being relatively high, as it is occurring during a time when inventory is still markedly low.

“The notable gain in October assures that total existing-home sales in 2021 will exceed 6 million, which will shape up to be the best performance in 15 years.”

While the market is expected to remain robust, Yun forecasts home prices will rise at a gentler pace over the course of the next several months and expects demand to be milder as mortgage rates increase.

Realtor.com®’s Hottest Housing Markets(link is external) data revealed that out of the largest 40 metros, the most improved metros over the past year, as of November 18, were Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.; Jacksonville, Fla.; Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.; Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas; and Nashville-Davidson, Tenn.

October Pending Home Sales Regional Breakdown

Compared to the previous month, contract signings rose at the strongest pace in the Midwest and South regions. Month-over-month, the Northeast PHSI increased 6.9% to 99.5 in October, a 10% drop from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index climbed 11.8% to 124.6 last month, up 5.1% from October 2020.

Pending home sales transactions in the South rose 8.0% to an index of 149.7 in October, up 0.6% from October 2020. The index in the West grew 2.1% in October to 107.5, down 6.2% from a year prior.

The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

There are a lot of questions right now regarding the real estate market as we head into 2022. The forbearance program is coming to an end and mortgage rates are beginning to rise.

With all of this uncertainty, anyone with a megaphone – from the mainstream media to a lone blogger – has realized that bad news sells. Unfortunately, we’ll continue to see a rash of troublesome headlines over the next few months. To make sure you aren’t paralyzed by a headline, turn to reliable resources for a look at what to expect from the housing market next year.

There are already alarmist headlines starting to appear. Here are two recent topics you may have seen in the news.

1. Foreclosures Are Spiking Today

There are a number of headlines circulating that call out the rising foreclosures in today’s real estate market. Those stories focus on an overly narrow view on that topic: the current volume of foreclosures compared to 2020. They emphasize that we’re seeing far more foreclosures this year compared to last.

That seems rather daunting. However, though it’s true foreclosures have been up over the 2020 numbers, it’s important to realize that there were virtually no foreclosures last year because of the forbearance plan. If we compare this September to September of 2019 (the last normal year), foreclosures were down 70% according to ATTOM.

Even Rick Sharga, an Executive Vice President of the firm that issued the report referenced in the above article, says:

“As expected, now that the moratorium has been over for three months, foreclosure activity continues to increase. But it’s increasing at a slower rate, and it appears that most of the activity is primarily on vacant and abandoned properties, or loans in foreclosure prior to the pandemic.”

Homeowners who have been impacted by the pandemic are not generally the ones being burdened right now. That’s because the forbearance program has worked. Ali Haralson, President of Auction.com, explains that the program has done a remarkable job:

“The tsunami of foreclosures many feared in the early days of the pandemic has not materialized thanks in large part to the swift and decisive foreclosure protections put in place by government policymakers and the mortgage servicing industry.”

And the government is still making sure homeowners have every opportunity to stay in their homes. Rohit Chopra, the Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), issued this statement just last week:

“Failures by mortgage servicers and regulators worsened the impact of the economic crisis a decade ago. Regulators have learned their lesson, and we will be scrutinizing servicers to ensure they are doing all they can to help homeowners and follow the law.”

2. Rising Mortgage Rates Will Slow the Housing Market

Another topic that’s generating frequent headlines is the rise in mortgage rates. Some people are expressing concern that rising rates will negatively impact the housing market by causing home sales to dramatically decline. The resulting headlines are raising unneeded alarm bells. To counteract those headlines, we need to take a look at what history tells us. Looking at data over the last 20 years, there’s no evidence that an increase in rates dramatically forces sales to come to a halt. Nor does home price appreciation come to a screeching stop. Let’s look at home sales first:The last three times rates increased (shown in the graph above in red), sales (depicted in blue in the graph) remained rather consistent. It’s true that sales fell rather dramatically from 2007 through 2010, but mortgage rates were also falling at the time. The next two instances showed no meaningful drop in sales.

Now, let’s take a look at home price appreciation (see graph below):Again, we see that a rise in rates didn’t cause prices to depreciate. Outside of the years following the crash, prices continued to appreciate, just at a slower rate.

Bottom Line

There’s a lot of misinformation out there. If you want the best advice on what’s happening in the current housing market, let’s connect.

As we near the end of the year, more homeowners are realizing the benefits of today’s sellers’ market. Record-breaking home price appreciation, growing equity, low inventory, and competitive mortgage rates are motivating homeowners to make a move that addresses their changing lifestyles.

In fact, recent data from realtor.com shows a larger share of homeowners are planning to list their houses this winter. So, that means more homes are about to hit the market, which will lead to more choices for buyers too.

According to George Ratiu, Manager of Economic Research at realtor.com:

“The pandemic has delayed plans for many Americans, and homeowners looking to move on to the next stage of life are no exception. Recent survey data suggests the majority of prospective sellers are actively preparing to enter the market this winter.“

If you’re thinking of waiting until the spring to sell your house, know that your neighbors may be one step ahead of you by selling this winter. If you want to stand out from the crowd, this holiday season is the best time to make sure your house is available for buyers. Here’s why.

Sellers Are Still Firmly in the Driver’s Seat

Historically, a 6-month supply of homes for sale is needed for a normal or neutral market. That level ensures there are enough homes available for active buyers (see graph below):The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows the inventory of houses for sale sits at a 2.4-month supply. This is well below a neutral market.

What Does That Mean for You?

When the supply of homes for sale is as low as it is today, it’s much harder for buyers to find homes to purchase. This drives up competition among buyers, who then submit increasingly competitive offers to win out against others in the home search process. As this happens, prices rise and your leverage as a seller rises too, putting you in the best position to negotiate a contract that meets your ideal terms.

And while the low housing supply we’re facing won’t be solved overnight, sellers this season should move quickly to maximize their potential. As the data shows, with more prospective sellers planning to list their homes this winter, selling sooner rather than later helps your house rise to the top of a holiday buyer’s wish list so you can close the best possible deal.

Bottom Line

Listing your home over the next few weeks gives you the best chance to be in front of buyers competing for homes this holiday season. Let’s connect today to discuss how you can benefit from today’s sellers’ market.

Last week, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate from Freddie Mac inched up to 3.1%, and experts project rates will continue rising through 2022:

“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 2.9% in the third quarter of 2021. We forecast mortgage rates to increase slightly through the remainder of the year and reach 3.0%, rising to 3.5% for full year 2022.”

If you’re thinking of buying a home, here are a few things to keep in mind so you can succeed even as mortgage rates rise.

Taking Time Off Can Be Costly

Mortgage rates play a significant role in your home search. As rates go up, your monthly mortgage payment increases if you’re buying a home, directly affecting how much you can afford. And even the smallest increase can have a large impact on your monthly payment (see chart below):With mortgage rates on the rise, you’ve likely seen your purchasing power impacted already. Instead of waiting and hoping rates will fall, today’s rates should motivate you to purchase now before rates increase more.

Smart Buyers Can Succeed by Planning Ahead

You can use your newfound motivation to energize your search and plan your next steps accordingly so you’re prepared to act no matter what happens with mortgage rates. One way to do that: take rising rates into consideration as part of your budget.

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, puts it best, saying:

“Smart buyers should consider calculating a monthly payment not only at today’s rates, but also at rates that are a bit higher so that they won’t be derailed by a sudden upward move. . . .”

You should also be ready to act when you find the home that meets your needs. That means getting pre-approved with a lender so there won’t be any delays when the time arrives.

The best way to prepare is to work with a trusted real estate advisor now. An agent can connect you with a lender, help you adjust your search based on your budget, and be ready to act quickly when it’s time to make an offer.

Bottom Line

Serious buyers should approach rising rates as a motivating factor to buy sooner, not a reason to wait. Waiting will cost you more in the long run. Let’s connect today so you can better understand your budget and be prepared to buy your home even before rates climb higher.

There’s no denying the financial benefits of homeownership, but what’s often overlooked are the feelings of gratitude, security, pride, and comfort we get from owning a home. This year, those emotions are stronger than ever. We’ve lived through a time that has truly changed our needs and who we are, and as a result, homeownership has a whole new meaning for many of us.

According to the 2021 State of the American Homeowner report by Unison:

“Last year, staying home became a necessity and that caused many homeowners to have renewed gratitude for the roof over their head.”

As a nation, we continue to work through the challenges of a pandemic that’s pushed us all to new limits. Over the past year and a half, we’ve spent more time than ever at home: working, eating, schooling, exercising, and more. The world around us changed almost overnight, and our homes were redefined. Our needs shifted, and our shelters became a place that protected us on a whole new level. The same study from Unison notes:

• 91% of homeowners say they feel secure, stable, or successful owning a home
• 64% of American homeowners say living through a pandemic has made their home more important to them than ever
• 83% of homeowners say their home has kept them safe during the COVID-19 pandemic

It’s no surprise this study also reveals that homeowners are now more emotionally attached to their homes as well:As we’ve learned throughout this health crisis, homeownership can provide the safety and security we crave in a time of uncertainty. That sense of connection and emotional stability genuinely reaches beyond just the financial aspect of owning a home. As JD Esajian, President of CT Homes, LLC, says:

“Aside from the financial factors, there are several social benefits of homeownership and stable housing to consider. It has long been thought that buying a home contributes to a sense of accomplishment. Still, most individuals fail to realize that homeownership can benefit your mental health and the community around you.”

Whether you’re thinking of buying your first home, moving up to your dream home, or downsizing to something that better fits your changing lifestyle, take a moment to reflect on what Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, notes:

“Buying a home is not just a financial decision. It’s also a lifestyle decision.”

Bottom Line

If you’re considering buying a home, it’s not entirely about the dollars and cents. Don’t forget to weigh the non-financial benefits that may truly change your life when you need them most.

Please have a happy, healthy, safe Thanksgiving!