Month: August 2023

There’s an old adage in real estate: location, location, location. But ever since the Federal Reserve began its series of inflation-fighting interest rate hikes last year, a new mantra has emerged: mortgage rates, mortgage rates, mortgage rates.

Higher rates had the immediate impact of dampening homebuyer affordability and demand. But this year, we’re seeing further repercussions. While analysts expected listing inventory to swell as sales declined, instead, homeowners have been pushing off plans to sell because they feel beholden to their existing, lower mortgage rates.

So what impact is this reduced demand and low supply environment having on home values? And what can we expect from the real estate market in the coming months and years? Here are several key indicators that help to paint a picture of the current market and where it’s likely headed.

HOME SALES ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BY EARLY NEXT YEAR

The weather isn’t the only thing that heats up in the spring and summer. Nationally, it tends to be the busiest time in real estate. But this year, the peak season got off to a slow start, with sales declines in both March and April.^1,2 Existing home sales in April were down 3.4% from the previous month—and 23.2% from a year earlier.²

What’s causing this market slowdown? Industry experts attribute it to several factors, including near-record home prices, high mortgage rates, and low inventory.

According to National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “Home sales are trying to recover and are highly sensitive to changes in mortgage rates. Yet, at the same time, multiple offers on starter homes are quite common, implying more supply is needed to fully satisfy demand. It’s a unique housing market.”¹

However, some industry experts believe the market is poised for a comeback. Forecasters at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predict that home sales will continue to fall through Q3 before rising in Q4 and throughout next year.³  Analysts at Fannie Mae expect the recovery to take a bit longer, picking up in early 2024.

Meanwhile, home builder confidence is already up, as purchases of new single-family homes surged in March and April to a 13-month high.⁵ Builder incentives are helping to boost sales: According to the National Association of Home Builders, in May, 54% reported using them to win over budget-conscious buyers.⁶

What does it mean for you?  A slower pace of sales has given buyers some breathing room. If you hated the frenzy of the pandemic-era real estate market, now might be a better time for you to shop for a home. We can help you evaluate your options and make an informed purchase.

If you plan to sell your home, prepare yourself for less foot traffic and a longer sales timeline than you may have found a year ago. It will also be crucial to enlist the help of a skilled agent who knows how to draw in buyers. Reach out for a copy of our multi-step Property Marketing Plan.

PROPERTY VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE

Some good news for buyers: While home builder sales climbed in April, the median new-house price fell to $420,800, an 8.2% decrease from a year ago.⁵ Meanwhile, the median existing-home price dropped to $388,800, down 1.7% year-over-year. Notably, existing-home prices rose in parts of the country but fell in the South and West.² 

“Roughly half of the country is experiencing price gains,” explains Yun. “Multiple-offer situations have returned in the spring buying season following the calmer winter market. Distressed and forced property sales are virtually nonexistent.”²

The average national home price remains about 40% higher than it was in early 2020, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index.⁷ A tight housing supply has helped to buoy prices amidst a slowdown in sales.

“While it varies from region to region, home prices at the national level may fall 1% or 1.5% by the end of the year, so not much,” Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, told Yahoo Finance in April.⁸

Record levels of home equity will help to stabilize the sector and prevent a wave of foreclosures, even as prices moderate, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.⁹

“But for those who have owned a home for more than a year or two, their home will remain a rock-solid investment. And once affordability is restored, the next generation of households can become homeowners. Getting there is critical to the financial well-being of those households, their communities, and the broader economy,” writes Zandi in The Washington Post.⁹

What does it mean for you?  Prices have softened in certain market segments—and motivated sellers are out there and willing to make deals. We can help you find your next home and negotiate a great price.

If you’re a homeowner, the surge in home values has slowed, but you’re likely still sitting on a nice pile of equity. Reach out for a free assessment to find out how much your home is currently worth.

LISTING INVENTORY IS LOW, BUT NEW CONSTRUCTION IS ON THE RISE

Unsold existing home inventory rose 7.2% from March to April, according to NAR. At the current level of demand, this equates to 2.9 months of supply, which is still well below the 5 to 6 months of inventory required for a “balanced” market.²

Inventory remains tight despite the market slowdown because many would-be sellers are reluctant to give up their lower mortgage rates. “Affordability is not only an issue for first-time homebuyers, but also for many repeat buyers who still need to take on a mortgage,” explains Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com.¹⁰

In a recent survey by the home listing site, 82% of respondents who are planning to both buy and sell a home said they feel “locked in” by their low rate.¹¹

In some areas, new home construction is helping to fill the supply gap. “Currently, one-third of housing inventory is new construction, compared to historical norms of a little more than 10%,” according to National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist Robert Dietz.¹²

And more new homes are in the pipeline, after a builder slowdown last year. Single-family housing starts rose 1.6% from March to April (seasonally adjusted) and new construction permits hit a seven-month high.¹³

What does it mean for you?  Inventory remains tight, but less competition means more choice and negotiating power for buyers. If you’ve had trouble finding a home in the past, it may be time to take another look. We can help you explore both new and existing homes in our area.

Sellers are enjoying reduced competition right now, as well. However, the longer you wait to list, the more competition you’re likely to face. And if you feel locked in by your current, lower mortgage rate, consider this: If you roll your equity gains into a down payment on your next home, you could possibly lower your monthly payment. Reach out to discuss your options.

MORTGAGE RATES MAY FINALLY COME DOWN

According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a peak of 7.08% in the fourth quarter of 2022, and since then it’s primarily floated between 6 and 7%.¹⁴ However, there are signs that rates could trend lower later this year.

“Calmer inflation means lower mortgage rates, eventually,” Yun predicted in a recent statement. “Mortgage rates slipping down to under 6% looks very likely toward the year’s end.”¹⁵

Other leading economists agree. In its May forecast, Fannie Mae speculates that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will continue to decline, averaging 6.0% in Q4 2023 and 5.4% by Q4 2024.⁴ Meanwhile, the MBA predicts rates will fall even faster, averaging 5.6% by Q4 2023 and 4.8% by Q4 2024.³

On May 3, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark borrowing rate by another quarter point—its 10th consecutive increase since March 2022. However, in its corresponding statement, the Fed omitted language from its previous release about “additional policy firming,” leaving many analysts to speculate that the rate hikes may be over.¹⁶

Although mortgage rates aren’t directly tied to the federal funds rate, a decision by the Fed to pause rate increases could have a positive effect. In the meantime, buyers should shop around multiple lenders to find the best rate—and buckle up for what could be an exciting ride.

What does it mean for you?  Mortgage rates may finally trend down, which would be great news for buyers. But, a decrease in rates could correspond with an increase in competition and prices. If you start searching now, you’ll be prepared to make an offer when the time is right. We can help you negotiate a great deal and potential seller incentives.

If you’re planning to sell, this is good news for you, too. But, there are several factors to consider when determining the right time to list your home. Reach out for a consultation so we can help you chart the best course.

WE’RE HERE TO GUIDE YOU

While national real estate forecasts can provide a “big picture” outlook, real estate is local. And as local market experts, we can guide you through the ins and outs of our market and the issues most likely to impact sales and drive home values in your particular neighborhood. 

If you’re considering buying or selling a home, contact us now to schedule a free consultation. We’ll work with you to develop an action plan to meet your real estate goals.

The above references an opinion and is for informational purposes only.  It is not intended to be financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult the appropriate professionals for advice regarding your individual needs.

Sources:

1. National Association of Realtors –
   https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-slid-2-4-in-march
2. National Association of Realtors –
   https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-faded-3-4-in-april
3. Mortgage Bankers Association –
   https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/forecasts/2023/mortgage-finance-forecast-may-2023.pdf?sfvrsn=4bf1d1a7_1
4. Fannie Mae –
   https://www.fanniemae.com/media/47006/display
5. U.S. Census Bureau –
   https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html
6. National Association of Home Builders –
   https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2023/05/lack-of-existing-inventory–boosts-builder-confidence-to-key-marker
7. New York Times –
   https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/29/business/spring-housing-market.html?
8. Yahoo Finance –
   https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-increase-after-weeks-of-declines-160015631.html
9. The Washington Post –
   https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/22/housing-prices-put-some-out-of-the-market/
10. CNBC –
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/20/home-sales-fell-in-march-amid-volatility-in-mortgage-rates.html
11. Realtor.com –
    https://www.realtor.com/research/2023-q1-sellers-survey-btts/
12. National Association of Home Builders –
    https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2023/04/lack-of-existing-inventory-continues-to-support-builder-sentiment
13. United State Census Bureau –
    https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf
14. Freddie Mac –
    https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
15. National Association of Realtors –
    https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/instant-reaction-inflation-april-12-2023
16. CNBC –
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/03/fed-rate-decision-may-2023-.html

To avoid buyer’s remorse, consider your future self when shopping for a home. 

Most new homebuyers don’t regret becoming homeowners. In fact, according to a survey by LendingTree, 80% of recent buyers who successfully overcame a challenging housing market say they’re glad they found their current homes.¹ But that doesn’t mean newly-minted homeowners don’t have any regrets about their buying choices. 

On the contrary, research shows that even the most satisfied homeowners would change some aspects of their home purchase if given the opportunity. According to a recent survey by Anytime Estimate, nearly 3 out of 4 buyers who purchased a home in 2021 or 2022 still have a few regrets.² 

Some question their decision to move to a neighborhood they still don’t love. Others wish they had been less picky about where they lived so they could have paid less. Many are afraid they overspent or think they sacrificed too much in their rush to buy a home. 

Here are some of the most common homebuyer regrets we see, along with our professional advice on avoiding them.

REGRET #1: Spending More Than Necessary 

No one wants to overpay for their new home purchase (and, luckily, with the right guidance, doing so is avoidable). But even if you’ve secured a winning purchase price, there are still plenty of ways to overspend accidentally. 

One of the most common ways to overpay? Choose the wrong mortgage. In fact, this can be one of the riskiest mistakes a new buyer can make in today’s higher-rate environment. 

According to a recent survey, nearly three-quarters of homebuyers leave money on the table by not bothering to shop around for the best rate.³ And research by LendingTree suggests that buyers in major metro areas lose an average of $63,151 over the life of their loan just by picking the first mortgage they’re offered.⁴

Lesson Learned:  As long as you stick to what you can afford, buying a home can be a boon for your financial health. The longer you live in it, for example, the more your home is likely to appreciate in value and boost your long-term savings. 

But to get the most value from your purchase, it’s worth your time to compare financing options and shop around for the best deal. We also recommend getting a mortgage pre-approval before you start your home search so you know what’s within reach. We can refer you to one of our trusted lending partners for help.

REGRET #2: Rushing Into a Home Purchase

In a competitive housing market, securing a home is often necessary. But don’t let a need for speed tempt you into making an offer before you’ve thought through or fully vetted a new property.   

Rushing into a home purchase isn’t just risky, it’s also one of the most commonly cited sources of homebuyer regret. According to Anytime Estimate, for example, more than 1 in 4 homebuyers felt remorse over how quickly they sped through the home buying process.² 

Getting swept away by your emotions can also lead to buyer’s remorse. If you’ve found a home you love and are competing with other buyers, it can be tempting to overlook key details or bid more than you can afford. That’s one reason it helps to have a skilled professional to calmly guide you through the process and ensure you act with reason, rather than emotion.

Lesson Learned:Buying a home is exciting. But if you don’t keep your emotions in check or act too impulsively, you could make poor choices in the moment that are hard to undo later. 

To avoid making last-minute decisions that could backfire, know what you want, what you need, and what you can afford before you start your home search. We can help you set priorities so you’ll be able to move forward with confidence when the time is right.

REGRET #3: Miscalculating the Costs of Homeownership

Though real estate is a great long-term investment, it can be pricey in the short term, often surprising homeowners unprepared for it. According to some estimates, annual maintenance could cost as much as 1% or more of your home’s purchase price.5 Some buyers also forget to consider additional ownership expenses, such as property taxes, insurance, and repairs.

Failing to think through the costs of homeownership is one of the most common sources of homebuyer regret. According to Anytime Estimate, nearly half of the homebuyers who regret their purchase said they underestimated how much they would spend to live in it.²

However, some homes cost more to live in and maintain than others. So even if you’re certain that you can afford the average cost of homeownership, that doesn’t necessarily mean that every home in your price range will fit neatly into your budget. For example, very old homes with unique maintenance requirements could be extra pricey to keep up. Similarly, homes with high HOA or condo fees could also affect your monthly budget. 

Lesson Learned:  A home should help you build your wealth, not drain it. So it’s important to factor in all the potential costs of living in a home—not just obvious ones like your mortgage payment and taxes. To ensure you don’t get overextended, add up your estimated maintenance and repair costs, as well as any miscellaneous expenses that are unique to a particular home. 

We can help you with these estimates—and, if needed, present you with some less-costly alternatives.

REGRET #4: Underestimating the Time Required To Maintain or Renovate a Home

One of the most joyful aspects of homeownership is relaxing in a home that’s all your own. But if a home is too high maintenance, then you may not have time to savor it. 

Many homeowners love to spend their weekends puttering in their gardens or undertaking home improvement projects. But if that’s not you, then you may not like living in a home with a big yard or with high-maintenance features, like a pool.

According to a survey by Hippo, for example, 47% of homeowners who regret their home purchase complain that too much maintenance and upkeep is required.⁶ 

Similarly, buyers who purchase fixer-uppers are often surprised by how long rehabbing their new homes takes. Although buying a fixer-upper is a great way to save on the purchase price, you could resent it if it consumes your free time.

Lesson Learned:  Renovation and maintenance projects are often time-consuming and stressful. So beware of committing to a property that requires too much of your attention if you don’t have the time or patience for it. With that said, home improvement projects can also bring a lot of joy and satisfaction to owners who like rolling up their sleeves.

We can talk through the realities of homeownership with you and help you choose a property that will fit your personality and schedule.

REGRET #5: Ignoring or Skipping a Home Inspection

Getting swept up in the excitement of buying a home is easy. Sometimes, buyers will agree to skip a home inspection to sweeten their offer in a competitive market. They may also be tempted to pinch pennies since they already face a large outlay. However, if you skip out on a home inspection, you could regret it.

When you hire a home inspector, you get a professional, in-depth examination of the property’s structures and systems before you buy it. It’s a worthwhile investment that can save you money in the long run, either by warning you away from a bad purchase or by providing a list of deficiencies you can use to negotiate with the sellers. 

But even the most thorough home inspection isn’t worth much if you don’t take the time to consider it carefully. If possible, ensure you’re on-site during the inspection so you can observe and ask questions. And don’t forget to re-evaluate any repairs the seller agrees to make to ensure they’ve been properly completed before closing.

Lesson Learned:  A home inspection can reduce your risk and save you money in the long run. But to maximize its effectiveness, you will need to be an active participant in the process.

We’d be happy to share a list of experienced and trustworthy home inspectors in our area. And when the inspection report is complete, we can help you decide if the purchase is worthwhile and negotiate any relevant seller concessions and repairs.

REGRET #6: Choosing a Home That Doesn’t Fit 

Homeownership is often a better investment if you’re willing to stay put for at least five years.⁷ But if your newly purchased home isn’t a good fit, you may not want to stay that long. 

Many homeowner complaints come down to simple lifestyle issues: Although a mismatch may seem small at first, the problems can magnify if you make so many compromises that they interfere with your quality of life.

Or, sometimes, homebuyers can fall in love with a beautiful home and forget about practicalities. For example, a stunning kitchen can’t replace a needed bedroom or bathroom. And a sparkling pool may sit empty if the home requires a lengthy commute to your office.

Ensure you set some guardrails during your home purchase so you don’t over-compromise or accidentally prioritize your wants over your needs.

Lesson Learned:  When you’re dealing with limited inventory or a fixed budget, it may be necessary to sacrifice some items on your home wish list. But if you fail to secure your must-haves, you could come to regret your home choice.

We can help you avoid an ill-fitting home purchase by working with you to set (and stick to) priorities and parameters before you begin your search. 

REGRET #7: Purchasing Without Professional Help

Another path to homebuyer regret? Foregoing the expert guidance and market insight that you can only get from a licensed real estate agent – me.

Buying a home without professional representation can be extremely risky. Therefore, it’s no surprise that 86% of buyers enlist the help of an agent when purchasing a home. And the vast majority find their assistance invaluable: 89% say they would use their agent again or recommend them to others.⁸

Real estate is hyperlocal and extremely fluid—especially when the market constantly changes. So it pays to have an expert who can guide you through an often-complicated process. 

I can help you avoid expensive mistakes that could lead to buyer’s remorse, all while making your home purchase as seamless and stress-free as possible. And since the home seller typically pays my commission, you have no added expense!

Lesson Learned:  When you work with a real estate agent, you benefit from a wealth of expertise and on-the-ground insight that you can’t get anywhere else. We’ll help you steer clear of the missteps that so many homebuyers make, so you can focus on enjoying your new home instead of questioning your choices down the road.

The best part? Since the majority of home sellers pay us a commission at closing, in most cases, we offer our invaluable guidance and assistance at no additional cost to you!

BOTTOMLINE

No one wants to look back on their home purchase and realize they made a big mistake. We can help you avoid the pitfalls so you can buy with confidence. To learn more about how we work to ensure our clients’ satisfaction, reach out today to schedule a free consultation.

The above references an opinion and is for informational purposes only.  It is not intended to be financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult the appropriate professionals for advice regarding your individual needs.

Sources:

1. LendingTree –
   https://www.lendingtree.com/home/mortgage/homebuying-process-survey/
2. Anytime Estimate –
   https://anytimeestimate.com/research/american-home-buyers-2022/ 
3. Zillow Home Loans –
   https://zillow.mediaroom.com/2022-11-18-Prospective-home-buyers-spend-about-as-much-time-researching-new-TVs-as-they-do-mortgage-lenders 
4. LendingTree –
   https://www.lendingtree.com/home/mortgage/mortgage-shopping-study/
5. CNBC –
   https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/01/survey-majority-of-homeowners-have-regrets.html
6. Hippo –
   https://www.hippo.com/blog/2022-hippo-housepower-report-how-homeowners-are-responding-essential-maintenance-during
7. Realtor.com –
   https://www.realtor.com/advice/sell/how-soon-can-you-sell-a-house-after-buying/ 
8. National Association of Realtors –
   https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/highlights-from-the-profile-of-home-buyers-and-sellers#homebuyers

Even though you may feel reluctant to sell your house because you don’t want to take on a mortgage rate that’s higher than the one you have now, there’s more to consider. While the financial side of things does matter, your personal needs may actually matter just as much. As an article from Bankrate says:

“Deciding whether it’s the right time to sell your home is a very personal decision. There are numerous important questions to consider, both financial and lifestyle-based, before putting your home on the market.”

So, ask yourself this: why did I want to move in the first place?

Chances are your primary motivation wasn’t just financial in nature. Why you’re really thinking about selling likely has more to do with something changing in your life or a shift in what you need out of your house.

Reasons Homeowners Still Need To Sell Today

Let’s explore some of the most common reasons sellers are moving today. A recent article from Builder Online helps shed light on this. In this research, they identified the following categories:

• Marriage – If you just got married, you may find you either need more space than you currently have, or the two of you want to find a new place you picked out together.
• Divorce – If you’re getting separated or are divorcing your partner, chances are it’ll be difficult to live under the same roof. Selling the place you have, so you can own get your own spot, may be necessary.
• Births – If your household is growing, you may need more square footage, including more bedrooms. If you’re running out of room for everyone, you may not be able to wait to move.
• Deaths – If you’ve recently lost a loved one, it can be hard to spend time in that home. You may need to move for financial reasons or because you no longer need all the space.
• Retirement – If you’re in the process of retiring, or you just did, you may be looking to downsize to cut costs, relocate to be closer to loved ones, or move to a dream location. In this new phase of life, your current home may not be able to deliver what you need. 

You may find you share one of these top motivators. If any of these resonate with you, it may be time to move so you can find a house better suited to your changing needs. A survey from Realtor.com finds other sellers are in the same boat. It says, 1 in 4 sellers are choosing to move for personal reasons, even with current mortgage rates:

“. . . more than half of seller-buyers (56%) who are planning to sell in the next 12 months said they are waiting for rates to come down, while 25% need to sell soon for personal reasons.”

If you need to sell now because something in your own life has changed, don’t let rates hold you back from what you want. You have options to help make that move possible. You can use the equity you already have in your current home toward your next purchase. And with how much equity homeowners have right now, you may be able to finance less than you’d expect, or pay all cash to avoid borrowing at all.

Bottom Line

When you’re ready to prioritize your changing needs, let’s connect. You need an expert on your side to help you list your house and find a home that delivers on everything you’re looking for.

Generation Z (Gen Z) is eager to put down their own roots and achieve financial independence. As a result, they’re turning to homeownership. According to the latest Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 30% of Gen Z buyers transitioned straight from living under their parents’ roofs to owning their own homes.

If you’re a member of this generation, and you’re interested in pursuing your own dream of homeownership, here’s some information you may find helpful on why and where your peers are buying.

The Reasons Gen Z Want To Become Homeowners

A recent survey by Rocket Mortgage identifies some of the top motivators driving Gen Z buyers to purchase a home:

“Of those surveyed, 34% said that starting or growing their family was their main motivation to buy a home. . . . Along with growing a family comes establishing a home base.”

Another key reason the survey says Gen Z wants to buy is because homeownership can give them more stability (20.8%). That’s because buying a home allows you to stabilize what’s typically your biggest monthly expense: your housing cost.

When you have a fixed-rate mortgage on your home, you can lock in your monthly payment for the duration of your loan, often 15 to 30 years. If you keep renting, you don’t have that same benefit, and you won’t be protected from rising housing costs.

So, if you’re ready to start a new chapter in your life or if you’re craving more stability, know that your peers feel the same way, and those motivators are why they’re turning to homeownership.

Gen Z’s Next Stop: Where Are They Making Their Moves?

If those reasons have you feeling ready to buy, here’s some information on where your peers are finding their homes that could help you with your search. According to a recent Lending Tree survey, Gen Z buyers are focusing on more affordable areas to help boost their buying power and offset the challenges that come with today’s mortgage rates.

Many Gen Z buyers still want the convenience and excitement of city life, but also value the affordability, open air, and space more suburban areas offer. Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, explains:

“. . . they want to live in a city, but they also want to be close to nature.”

Locating a home that offers both of those things requires expertise. Working with a trusted real estate professional can help you find a home in your budget and desired area. Your agent will know the most affordable neighborhoods to search in. They can also highlight the amenities and features that location offers and how those are aligned with your goals. They’ll also be able to walk you through how things like remote work can help you cast a broader net for your search. 

Bottom Line

If you’re a member of Gen Z and are just getting started on your homebuying journey, or if you want to learn more about the process, let’s connect. That way, you have a guide to help you find a home that fits both your lifestyle and your budget.

Have you ever wondered how inflation impacts the housing market? Believe it or not, they’re connected. Whenever there are changes to one, both are affected. Here’s a high-level overview of the connection between the two.

The Relationship Between Housing Inflation and Overall Inflation

Shelter inflation is the measure of price growth specific to housing. It comes from a survey of renters and homeowners that’s done by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The survey asks renters how much they’re paying in rent, and homeowners how much they’d rent their homes for, if they weren’t living in them.

Much like overall inflation measures the cost of everyday items, shelter inflation measures the cost of housing. And for four consecutive months, based on that survey, shelter inflation has been coming down (see graph below):

Why does this matter? Well, shelter inflation makes up about one-third of overall inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). So, when shelter inflation moves, it leads to noticeable moves in overall inflation. That means the recent dip in shelter inflation might be a sign that overall inflation could fall in the months ahead.

That moderation would be a welcome sight for the Federal Reserve (the Fed). They’ve been working to get inflation under control since early 2022. While they’ve made some headway (it peaked at 8.9% in the middle of last year), they’re still trying to get to their 2% goal (the latest report is 3.3%). 

Inflation and the Federal Funds Rate  

What’s the Fed been doing to lower inflation? They’ve been increasing the Federal Funds Rate. That interest rate influences how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. When inflation climbed, the Fed responded by raising the Federal Funds Rate to keep the economy from overheating.

The graph below shows the relationship between the two. Each time inflation (shown in the blue line) starts to climb, the Fed raises the Federal Funds Rate (shown in the orange line) to try to get it back to their target of 2% (see below):

The circled portion of the graph shows the most recent spike in inflation, the Fed’s actions to raise the Federal Funds Rate to fight that, and the moderation of inflation that happened in response to that hike. As inflation gets closer to the Fed’s current 2% goal, they may not need to raise the Federal Funds Rate much further.

A Brighter Future for Mortgage Rates?

So, what does all of this mean for you? While the actions coming out of the Fed don’t determine mortgage rates, they do have an impact. As Mortgage Professional America (MPA) explains:

“. . . mortgage rates and inflation are connected, however indirectly. When inflation rises, mortgage rates rise to keep up with the value of the US dollar. When inflation drops, mortgage rates follow suit.”

While no one can predict the future for mortgage rates, it’s encouraging to see the signs of moderating inflation in the economy. 

Bottom Line

Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or just stay informed about the housing market, let’s connect.

Are you putting off selling your house because you’re worried no one’s buying because of where mortgage rates are? If so, know this: the latest data shows plenty of buyers are still out there, and they’re purchasing homes today. Here’s the data to prove it.

The ShowingTime Showing Index is a measure of buyers touring homes. The graph below uses the latest numbers available and compares them to the same month in the last normal years to show just how active today’s buyers still are:

As you can see, when June 2023 numbers are stacked alongside what’s typical for the housing market at this time of year, it’s clear buyers are still active. And, they’re actually a lot more active than the norm.

If you’re wondering how this could possibly be true, it’s because buyers are getting used to higher mortgage rates and accepting them as the new reality. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, Realtor.com, explains:

“Interest rate hikes continue to further cut into buyers’ purchasing power, although they appear to have adapted to the higher mortgage rate environment . . .”

It’s simple. Buyers will always need to buy, and those who can afford to move at today’s rates are going to do so.

The Key Takeaway for You

While it’s true things have slowed down from the frenzy of the last couple of years, it doesn’t mean today’s market is at a standstill. The reality is: buyer traffic is still strong today. Even with today’s mortgage rates, plenty of buyers are still making their moves. So why delay your own move when there’s clearly a market for your house?

Bottom Line

Don’t put off your plans because you’re worried no one will buy your home. The opposite is true, and more buyers are more active than the norm. Let’s connect to get your house ready to sell, so it makes the best first impression possible on those eager buyers.

Some Highlights

• There are only about half the number of homes for sale compared to the last normal years in the market.
• That means buyers don’t have enough options right now. So, if you work with an agent to list your house, it should be in the spotlight.
• If you’re thinking of selling, let’s connect so your house can stand out while there’s such a shortage of supply and buyers are craving more options. 

There’s been talk about a recession for quite a while now. But the economy has been remarkably resilient. Why? One reason is employment and wages have stayed strong. Let’s look at the latest information on each one and why both are good news if you’re thinking about selling your house.

More Jobs Are Being Created

Instead of facing the job losses typical of any recession, the economy has been growing and adding jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 187,000 jobs were created in July, which is up from the 185,000 created in June. That means more people are finding work. In fact, so many jobs are being added that the unemployment rate is far lower than the long-term average of 5.7% (see graph below):

A low unemployment rate means that most people who want to work are finding jobs. When people have jobs, they have steady incomes – and that can help set them up to consider homeownership.

People Are Making More Money

And data also shows hourly earnings have been going up pretty steadily over the past few years (see graph below):

When wages rise, people have more money that they could save or use toward buying a home. This increase in income helps offset some of the affordability challenges in the housing market today. Affordability depends on three main factors: wages, home prices, and mortgage rates. With higher home prices and mortgage rates right now, Builder Online summarizes how growing wages can help:

“The housing market has been a beneficiary of the strong economy and labor market. Many of those employed have saved money over the past few years and used those funds toward a down payment on a home.”

If you’re thinking about selling your house, a strong job market, growing wages, and the resulting buyer demand is fantastic news. It means there’s a larger pool of potential buyers out there who are in a position to pursue their dreams of homeownership.

Bottom Line

With more jobs and rising wages creating eager buyers, there’s a lot going in your favor. Let’s connect so you have someone who can guide you through the process of selling your house, from setting the right price to getting your home ready to show.

If you remember the housing crash back in 2008, you may recall just how popular adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) were back then. And after years of being virtually nonexistent, more people are once again using ARMs when buying a home. Let’s break down why that’s happening and why this isn’t cause for concern.

Why ARMs Have Gained Popularity More Recently

This graph uses data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to show how the percentage of adjustable-rate mortgages has increased over the past few years:

As the graph conveys, after hovering around 3% of all mortgages in 2021, many more homeowners turned to adjustable-rate mortgages again last year. There’s a simple explanation for that increase. Last year is when mortgage rates climbed dramatically. With higher borrowing costs, some homeowners decided to take out this type of loan because traditional borrowing costs were high, and an ARM gave them a lower rate. 

Why Today’s ARMs Aren’t Like the Ones in 2008

To put things into perspective, let’s remember these aren’t like the ARMs that became popular leading up to 2008. Part of what caused the housing crash was loose lending standards. Back then, when a buyer got an ARM, banks and lenders didn’t require proof of their employment, assets, income, etc. Basically, people were getting loans that they shouldn’t have been awarded. This set many homeowners up for trouble because they couldn’t pay back the loans that they never had to qualify for in the first place.

This time around, lending standards are different. Banks and lenders learned from the crash, and now they verify income, assets, employment, and more. This means today’s buyers actually have to qualify for their loans and show they’ll be able to repay them.

Archana Pradhan, Economist at CoreLogic, explains the difference between then and now:

“Around 60% of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARM) that were originated in 2007 were low- or no-documentation loans . . . Similarly, in 2005, 29% of ARM borrowers had credit scores below 640 . . . Currently, almost all conventional loans, including both ARMs and Fixed-Rate Mortgages, require full documentation, are amortized, and are made to borrowers with credit scores above 640.”

In simple terms, Laurie Goodman at Urban Institute helps drive this point home by saying:

“Today’s Adjustable-Rate Mortgages are no riskier than other mortgage products and their lower monthly payments could increase access to homeownership for more potential buyers.”

Bottom Line

If you’re worried today’s adjustable-rate mortgages are like the ones from the housing crash, rest assured, things are different this time.

And, if you’re a first-time homebuyer and you’d like to learn more about lending options that could help you overcome today’s affordability challenges, reach out to a trusted lender.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is set to release its most recent Existing Home Sales (EHS) report tomorrow. This monthly release provides information on the volume of sales and price trends for homes that have previously been owned. In the upcoming release, it’ll likely say home prices are down. This may seem a bit confusing, especially if you’ve been following along and reading the blogs saying home prices have hit the bottom and have since rebounded.

So, why would this say home prices are falling when so many other price reports say they’re going back up? It all depends on the methodology of each one. NAR reports on the median home sales price, while some other sources use repeat sales prices. Here’s how those approaches differ.

The Center for Real Estate Studies at Wichita State University explains median sales prices like this:

“The median sale price measures the ‘middle’ price of homes that sold, meaning that half of the homes sold for a higher price and half sold for less . . . For example, if more lower-priced homes have sold recently, the median sale price would decline (because the “middle” home is now a lower-priced home), even if the value of each individual home is rising.”

Investopedia helps define what a repeat sales approach means:

“Repeat-sales methods calculate changes in home prices based on sales of the same property, thereby avoiding the problem of trying to account for price differences in homes with varying characteristics.”

The Challenge with the Median Home Sales Price Today

As the quotes above say, the approaches can tell different stories. That’s why median home sales price data (like EHS) may say prices are down, even though the vast majority of the repeat sales reports show prices are appreciating again.

Bill McBride, Author of the Calculated Risk blog, sums the difference up like this:

“Median prices are distorted by the mix and repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices.”

To drive this point home, here’s a simple explanation of median value (see visual below). Let’s say you have three coins in your pocket, and you decide to line them up according to their value from low to high. If you have one nickel and two dimes, the median value (the middle one) is 10 cents. If you have two nickels and one dime, the median value is now five cents.

In both cases, a nickel is still worth five cents and a dime is still worth 10 cents. The value of each coin didn’t change.

That’s why using the median home sales price as a gauge of what’s happening with home values may be confusing right now. Most buyers look at home prices as a starting point to determine if they match their budgets. But most people buy homes based on the monthly mortgage payment they can afford, not just the price of the house. When mortgage rates are higher, you may have to buy a less expensive home to keep your monthly housing expense affordable.

That’s why a greater number of ‘less-expensive’ houses are selling right now – and that’s causing the median home sales price to decline. But that doesn’t mean any single house lost value. 

When you see the stories in the media that prices are falling later this week, remember the coins. Just because the median home sales price changes, it doesn’t mean home prices are falling. What it means is the mix of homes being sold is being impacted by affordability and current mortgage rates.

Bottom Line

For a more in-depth understanding of home price trends and reports, let’s connect.