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There’s no doubt today’s housing market is very different than the frenzied one from the past couple of years. In the second half of 2022, there was a dramatic shift in real estate, and it caused many people to make comparisons to the 2008 housing crisis. While there may be a few similarities, when looking at key variables now compared to the last housing cycle, there are significant differences.
In the latest Real Estate Forecast Summit, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), drew the comparisons below between today’s housing market and the previous cycle:
Looking at the facts, it’s clear: today is very different than the housing market of 15 years ago.
And in today’s market, with inventory rising and less competition from other buyers, there’s opportunity right now. According to David Stevens, former Assistant Secretary of Housing:
“So be advised…this may be the one and only window for the next few years to get into a buyer’s market. And remember…as the Federal Reserve data shows…home prices only go up and always recover from recessions no matter how mild or severe. Long term homeowners should view this market…right now…as a unique buying opportunity.”
Today’s housing market is nothing like the real estate market 15 years ago. If you’re a buyer right now, this may be the chance you’ve been waiting for.
Home equity has been a hot topic in real estate news lately. And if you’ve been following along, you may have heard there’s a growing number of homeowners with negative equity. But don’t let those headlines scare you.
In truth, the headlines don’t give you all the information you really need to understand what’s happening and at what scale. Let’s break down one of the big equity stories you may be seeing in the news, and what’s actually taking place. That way, you’ll have the context you need to understand the big picture.
One piece of news circulating focuses on the percentage of homes purchased in 2022 that are currently underwater. The term underwater refers to a scenario where the homeowner owes more on the loan than the house is worth. This was a huge issue when the housing market crashed in 2008, but it’s much less significant today.
Media coverage right now is based loosely on a report from Black Knight, Inc. The actual report from that source says this:
“Of all homes purchased with a mortgage in 2022, 8% are now at least marginally underwater and nearly 40% have less than 10% equity stakes in their home, . . .”
Let’s unpack that for a moment and provide the bigger picture. The data-bound report from Black Knight is talking specifically about homes purchased in 2022, but media headlines don’t always mention that timeframe or provide the surrounding context about how unusual of a year 2022 was for the housing market. In 2022, home price appreciation soared, and it reached its max around March-April. Since then, the rate of appreciation has been slowing down.
Homeowners who bought their house last year right at the peak or those who paid more than market value in the months that followed are more likely to fall into the category of being marginally underwater. The qualifier marginally is another key piece of the puzzle the media isn’t necessarily including in their coverage.
So, what does that mean for those who purchased a home in 2022? It’s important to remember, owning a home is a long-term investment, not a short-term play. When headlines focus on the short-term view, they’re not necessarily providing the full context.
Typically speaking, the longer you stay in your home, the more equity you gain as you pay down your loan and as home prices appreciate. With recent market conditions, you may not have gained significant equity right away if you owned the home for just a few months. But it’s also true that many homeowners who recently bought their house are unlikely to be looking to sell quite yet.
As with everything, knowing the context is important. If you have questions about real estate headlines or about how much equity you have in your home, let’s connect.
If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home soon, you probably want to know what you can expect from the housing market this year. In 2022, the market underwent a major shift as economic uncertainty and higher mortgage rates reduced buyer demand, slowed the pace of home sales, and moderated home prices. But what about 2023?
An article from HousingWire offers this perspective:
“The red-hot housing market of the past 2 ½ years was characterized by sub-three percent mortgage rates, fast-paced bidding wars and record-low inventory. But more recently, market conditions have done an about-face. . . . now is the opportunity for everyone to become re-educated about what a ‘typical’ housing market looks like.”
This year, experts agree we may see the return of greater stability and predictability in the housing market if inflation continues to ease and mortgage rates stabilize. Here’s what they have to say.
The 2023 forecast from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says:
“While 2022 may be remembered as a year of housing volatility, 2023 likely will become a year of long-lost normalcy returning to the market, . . . mortgage rates are expected to stabilize while home sales and prices moderate after recent highs, . . .”
Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, adds:
“. . . buyers will not face the extreme competition that was commonplace over the past few years.”
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains home prices will vary by local area, but will net neutral nationwide as the market continues to adjust:
“After a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally . . . Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines.”
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:
“The housing market, once adjusted to the new normal of higher mortgage rates, will benefit from continued strong demographic-driven demand relative to an overall, long-run shortage of supply.”
If you’re looking to buy or sell a home this year, the best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect.
CEO, RE/MAX Caribbean & Central America (CCA) Region. Investor. Mentor. Educator. Public Speaker
January 7, 2023
High inflation is a problem for mainstream investors in the United States. Inflation is a portfolio killer because it wreaks havoc on the stock market.
The knee-jerk reaction is to put money in fixed-income assets with a guaranteed return. This is a terrible strategy considering inflation was last clocked at 7.11% – after five rate hikes by the FED in 2022. A guaranteed return doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed to make a profit – especially if you’re considering putting your money in a CD, Money Market Account (MMA), high-yield savings account (HYSA), treasuries, or any other fixed-income asset. When considering the current inflation rate, fixed-income assets will lose you money.
Putting money in a CD, MMA, HYSA, or treasury that pays at best 4.6% (5-year CD, according to nerdwallet.com) results in an annual loss of 2.5% annual loss.
Fixed-income assets are not the way to deal with inflation.
Banking is the right idea to deal with inflation, but it’s not the traditional type of banking that will save your portfolio; it’s land banking. What is land banking? It’s exactly as its name implies. It’s an investment strategy where you buy land and then sell when the value increases. Because property values – especially in high-demand, high-growth locales – typically outpace inflation, it’s a great strategy for battling inflation.
Besides acting as a buffer against inflation, land banking can also be a lucrative real estate investment strategy. Think of it as a buy-and-hold strategy without the tenant and broken air conditioner issues. It’s a strategy that’s been around for more than 500 years and one that has made millionaires for countless investors.
John Jacob Astor became America’s first multi-millionaire using this strategy. He purchased large tracts of land in New York. Today, that area is known as Manhattan. Aston saw the potential of that tract of land and was one of the few people at the time to see land banking as a great opportunity. If John Astor’s net worth resulting from the sale of that land was measured in the present day, it would amount to over $100 billion.
Land banking is not the first strategy that comes to mind when investors consider real estate, but it’s a valuable strategy investors should consider – especially in offshore locales.
Land banking requires patience (minimum holding periods of at least five years). Still, it’s entirely headache free because land requires no maintenance, which is a distinct advantage over traditional real estate investments. Land costs nearly nothing to own. Compared to commercial and residential properties that require maintenance and upkeep, land banking is becoming more and more appealing to savvy investors.
Investors considering land banking should consider investing offshore. That’s because of the relatively low property tax rates. In Belize, the property tax rate for unoccupied land is 1%. In Mexico, it’s 1/10th of 1%. The low property tax rates can only improve the bottom line and rate of return when it comes time to sell the property.
Real estate investing without having to deal with deadbeat tenants and toilet and plumbing repairs? Yes, please!
The ultra-wealthy have been using land banking to build and insulate wealth for years. While mainstream investors have been stressing over their up-and-down 401k’s in a volatile stock market, smart investors have been sitting back and watching their land values go up while the rest of the market goes on a roller coaster ride.
While many investors rush to fixed-income assets to “preserve” their assets, ultra-wealthy investors have been diversifying with offshore land to insulate their portfolios against uncertainty, downturns, and inflation. Even as they’re protecting their portfolios with land banking, these savvy investors are also watching their wealth grow as the value of their land holdings grow. And in hot offshore markets, their wealth only accelerates that much more.
With its hot growth and growing popularity as a tourist and retirement destination, Belize is ideal for land banking. With booming development activity, acquiring a piece of land in Belize or any other offshore locale with subdivision potential and then holding that land to eventually break it up into smaller titles and selling them off for a profit can be a highly lucrative strategy.
Land banking has long been used by smart investors not only for wealth building but also for portfolio protection. In addition, this strategy is ideal in a stable and quickly developing offshore locale with low tax rates and laws favorable to foreign investors. That’s why investors interested in land banking should consider Belize.
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A new year brings with it the opportunity for new experiences. If that resonates with you because you’re considering making a move, you’re likely juggling a mix of excitement over your next home and a sense of attachment to your current one.
A great way to ease some of those emotions and ensure you’re feeling confident in your decision is to keep these three best practices in mind.
The housing market shifted in 2022 as mortgage rates rose, buyer demand eased, and the number of homes for sale grew. As a seller, you’ll want to recognize things are different now and price your house appropriately based on where the market is today. Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, explains:
“Price your home realistically. This isn’t the housing market of April or May, so buyer traffic will be substantially slower, but appropriately priced homes are still selling quickly.”
If you price your house too high, you run the risk of deterring buyers. And if you go too low, you’re leaving money on the table. An experienced real estate agent can help determine what your ideal asking price should be.
Today, homeowners are living in their houses longer. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), since 1985, the average time a homeowner has owned their home has increased from 5 to 10 years (see graph below):
This is several years longer than what used to be the historical norm. The side effect, however, is when you stay in one place for so long, you may get even more emotionally attached to your space. If it’s the first home you bought or the house where your loved ones grew up, it very likely means something extra special to you. Every room has memories, and it’s hard to detach from the sentimental value.
For some homeowners, that makes it even harder to negotiate and separate the emotional value of the house from fair market price. That’s why you need a real estate professional to help you with the negotiations along the way.
While you may love your decor and how you’ve customized your home over the years, not all buyers will feel the same way about your design. That’s why it’s so important to make sure you focus on your home’s first impression so it appeals to as many buyers as possible. As NAR says:
“Staging is the art of preparing a home to appeal to the greatest number of potential buyers in your market. The right arrangements can move you into a higher price-point and help buyers fall in love the moment they walk through the door.”
Buyers want to envision themselves in the space so it truly feels like it could be their own. They need to see themselves inside with their furniture and keepsakes – not your pictures and decorations. A real estate professional can help you with tips to get your house ready to sell.
If you’re considering selling your house, let’s connect so you have the help you need to navigate through the process while prioritizing these best practices.
If you’re a renter, you likely face an important decision every year: renew your current lease, start a new one, or buy a home. This year is no different. But before you dive too deeply into your options, it helps to understand the true costs of renting moving forward.
In the past year, both current renters and new renters have seen their rent go up based on information from realtor.com:
“Three out of four renters (74.2%) who have moved in the past 12 months reported seeing their rent increase. The strain from recent rent hikes isn’t exclusive to renters who have recently moved. Nearly two-thirds of renters (63.2%) who have lived in their current rental between 12 and 24 months, and likely renewed their lease, have also reported increases in their rent.”
And if you look back at historical data, that shouldn’t come as surprise. That’s because, according to the Census, rents have been rising fairly consistently since 1988 (see graph below):
So, if you’re considering renting as an option in 2023, it’s worth weighing whether this trend is likely to continue. The 2023 Housing Forecast from realtor.com expects rents will keep climbing (see graph below):
That forecast projects rents will increase by 6.3% in the year ahead (shown in green). When compared to the blue bars in the graph, it’s clear that the 2023 projection doesn’t call for an increase as drastic as the ones renters have seen over the past two years, but it’s still above the historical average for rent hikes between 2013-2019.
That means, if you’re planning to rent again this year and you’ve not yet renewed your lease, you may pay more when you do.
These rising costs may make you reconsider what other alternatives you have. If you’re looking for more stability, it could be time to prioritize homeownership. One of the many benefits of owning your own home is it provides a stable monthly cost that you can lock in for the duration of your loan. As Freddie Mac says:
“Monthly rent payments may increase over time, but a fixed-rate mortgage will ensure that you’re paying the same amount each month. With a fixed-rate mortgage, your interest rate is locked in for the life of loan. Steady payments allow you to budget wisely and make plans for the future.”
If you’re planning to make a move this year, locking in your monthly housing costs for the duration of your loan can be a major benefit. You’ll avoid wondering if you’ll need to adjust your budget to account for annual increases like you would if you left your housing payment up to your landlord and their renewal cycle.
Homeowners also enjoy the added benefit of home equity, which has grown substantially. In fact, the latest Homeowner Equity Insight report from CoreLogic shows the average homeowner gained $34,300 in equity over the last 12 months. As a renter, your rent payment only covers the cost of your dwelling. When you pay your mortgage on a house, you grow your wealth through the forced savings that is your home equity.
If you’re thinking of renting this year, it’s important to keep in mind the true costs you’ll face. Let’s chat to see how you can begin your journey to homeownership today.
If you’re getting ready to buy your first home, you’re likely focused on saving up for everything that purchase involves. One cost that’s likely top of mind is your down payment. But don’t let a common misconception about how much you need to save make the process harder than it could be.
Freddie Mac explains:
“. . . nearly a third of prospective homebuyers think they need a down payment of 20% or more to buy a home. This myth remains one of the largest perceived barriers to achieving homeownership.”
Unless specified by your loan type or lender, it’s typically not required to put 20% down. This means you could be closer to your homebuying dream than you realize. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median down payment hasn’t been over 20% since 2005. In fact, the median down payment today is only 14%. And it’s even lower for first-time homebuyers at just 6% (see graph below):
If saving for a down payment still feels like a challenge, know that there’s help available. A real estate professional and trusted lender can show you options that could help you get closer to your down payment goal. According to latest Homeownership Program Index from Down Payment Resource, there are over 2,000 homebuyer assistance programs in the U.S., and the majority are intended to help with down payments.
Plus there are even loan types, like FHA loans, with down payments as low as 3.5%, as well as options like VA loans and USDA loans with no down payment requirements for qualified applicants.
To understand your options, be sure to do your homework. If you’re interested in learning more about down payment assistance programs, information is available through sites like Down Payment Resource. Then, partner with a trusted lender to learn what you qualify for on your homebuying journey.
Remember, a 20% down payment isn’t always required. If you want to purchase a home this year, let’s connect. You’ll also want to make sure you have a trusted lender so you can explore your down payment options.
If buying or selling a home is part of your dreams for 2023, it’s essential for you to understand today’s housing market, define your goals, and work with industry experts to bring your homeownership vision for the new year into focus.
In the last year, high inflation had a big impact on the economy, the housing market, and likely on your wallet too. That’s why it’s critical to have a clear understanding of not just the market today, but also what you want out of it when you buy or sell a home. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, explains:
“The key to making a good decision in this challenging housing market is to be laser focused on what you need now and in the years ahead, so that you can stay in your home long enough that buying is a sound financial decision.”
Here are a few questions you can start thinking through as you fine tune your goals for 2023.
You’re dreaming about making a move for a reason – what is it? No matter what’s happening in the market, there are still many compelling reasons to buy a home today. Your needs may have changed in a way your current house can’t address, or you could be ready to step into homeownership for the first time and have a space that’s truly your own. Use what’s motivating you as a guidepost in partnership with an expert advisor to help make sure your move will give you a lasting sense of accomplishment.
You know you want to move, but how would you describe your dream home? The available supply of homes for sale has grown, and that could mean more options to choose from when you buy. Just be sure to keep your budget in mind and work with a trusted real estate professional to balance your wants and needs. The better you understand what’s essential and where you can be flexible, the easier it can be to find the home that’s right for you.
Getting clear on your budget and savings is essential before you get too far into the process. Working with a local agent and a lender early is the best way to make sure you’re in a good position to buy. This could include planning how much to save for a down payment, getting pre-approved for a home loan, and assessing your current home equity if your move involves selling your existing house.
Buying or selling a home is a big process that takes expertise to navigate. If that feels a bit overwhelming, you aren’t alone. According to a recent Harris Poll survey, one in five respondents see a lack of information or knowledge about the homebuying process as a barrier from owning a home. Don’t let uncertainty hold you back from your goals this year. A trusted expert can bridge that gap and give you the best advice and information about today’s market.
Let’s connect to plan how your dreams for 2023 can become a reality.
